Overall Market Trend (Min 12 months)

[CGinMN]

It's not the tool I personally use, although I do reference that functionality from time to time. For those just dipping their toes into data analysis, though, its (IMO) not a bad place to start learning how to visualize data.

But look at it. How can 7500 sales over a 10 year period (approx. 60/month) show 4 months with a median price of zero? It’s not displaying data correctly.

 

[alebrewer]

But look at it. How can 7500 sales over a 10 year period (approx. 60/month) show 4 months with a median price of zero? It’s not displaying data correctly.

I dunno. I just ran a 12 month on a data set from my area. It reflects the data pretty well.



And remember, too, that median price isn't all that you can model... below is one I ran for months inventory - it's probably fairly accurate as well.



I certainly agree that, if the model looks janky, it probably shouldn't be used.

 

[CGinMN]

None of these charts look accurate to me. The top chart has a huge gap between July and Sept. In the 2nd chart the market went from 2 months inventory to 18 months in half a year.

 

[alebrewer]

None of these charts look accurate to me. The top chart has a huge gap between July and Sept. In the 2nd chart the market went from 2 months inventory to 18 months in half a year.

The reason for the gap is that there were no sales during those periods. I mean - poo-poo them all you like. As I said - I don't use them to defend my own work, but for those just getting into this type of analysis, I think it's a good starting place. I completely understand that you don't.

 

[J Grant]

Just use they make as much sense as anything

 

[Fernando]

I know several MBs that just order the appraisal direct from the AMC through a portal

One time I talked with my MB and told him to contact AMC to request for the Great Fernando to do his appraisal.
Not sure if that worked.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

median price isn't all that you can model...

My question is this. If most RE data is often "seasonally adjusted" wouldn't we be better off using an annualized linear trend rather than trying to adjust on the basis of variation due to the selling season, be it quarterly, monthly or daily?

 

[Joe Flacco]

The real estate data we work with is not seasonally adjusted.

But I agree linear trend is definitely better than that garbage being put out from spark and datamaster.

 

[Fernando]

My question is this. If most RE data is often "seasonally adjusted" wouldn't we be better off using an annualized linear trend rather than trying to adjust on the basis of variation due to the selling season, be it quarterly, monthly or daily?

Unless GSEs tell us to do a "seasonally adjusted", appraisers do and interpret what they want.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Unless GSEs tell us to do a "seasonally adjusted", appraisers do and interpret what they want until the AMC vets it and wants something else, and then the bank reviewer wants to adjust it differently, and .... on and on.

Fixed it