The Decline of the Appraisal Industry: An Unsustainable Future

[gregb]

Plenty of unknowns going forward, such as the privatization of the GSE's. VA, 2-4's, 5-30 units plus an area with complex and rural properties have all kept me occupied over the years. Add to the mix the retirement of experienced appraisers plus the failure of PAREA and demise of the Appraisal Institute on the residential level, leaves me seeing plenty of blue sky ahead.

 

[J Grant]

Imo, there will be only a trickle of PAREA graduates each year. That said, there are enough appraisers around of various ages to do the low-paying AMC work for the next twenty years, Though some might drift into different things-

A segment of experienced appraisers will be in demand for the small amount of 1-4 units and whatever amount of high-end/complex or rural remains. This still leaves it a not viable field for many res license folks, which I think is unfortunate. Once a certain mass of market experience exits, it is gone

There are replacement products for appraisals, but the ROLE of the appraiser is what added value - they were the only non-transaction-affiliated, unbiased professionals in the food chain. However, the GSEs and allies set out to undermine and neuter the appraiser's role, and they succeeded.

Their goal is "efficiency," forgetting the fact that RE is an inefficient market- and what they call "friction" ( appraisers ) served to keep market volatility in check and act as a prevention of price manipulation, which is far easier for parties to accomplish with the WAIIVER program.

Ironically, when appraisal volume during the cold and post covid boom meant slow turnaround time, the lenders were making $ hand over fist. They are starving now, and getting an AVM instead of an appraisal or getting a valuation one day faster won't change that.

 

[Charles West]

The numbers don't make sense anymore. As the OP discusses, I made the same money in the late 1980s. Since then, the dollar's value has declined precipitously, and the cost of maintaining a license has tripled, not to mention the compounded sources of liability. If I was in the same position now as I was then, it wouldn't make a blip on my radar.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Fast food workers in CA make $20/hour.

So what? Fast food workers make $10-14 an hour here. And almost all are part-time meaning they don't get health care or retirement pay like a government worker.

And for a guy, what a great way to meet women

That would be a negative for a lot of guys And the two male stylists I knew were both gay...and hated each other. I dated a female hairdresser and she used to tell funny stories about the gays in the Stylist conventions. And she was making better money than me in the oil patch, and drove a red corvette.

 

[Alsie35]

The numbers don't make sense anymore. As the OP discusses, I made the same money in the late 1980s. Since then, the dollar's value has declined precipitously, and the cost of maintaining a license has tripled, not to mention the compounded sources of liability. If I was in the same position now as I was then, it wouldn't make a blip on my radar.

??? I thought you retired in 2014?

 

[TC]

God, I hope we don't get the inane "Adapt or move on " advice. There is no viable way to adapt to a severe cut in income combined with escalating demands and over-the-top scrutiny.

That line always cracks me up. Yep, adapt to low fees and less volume.

 

[Charles West]

??? I thought you retired in 2014?

I did. And I was making $400 to $450 per at that time, only $50 to $100 more than I made in 1988. If I was doing 10 to 15 reports a month now I would need $1,000 per to survive.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Yep, adapt to low fees and less volume.

 

[Surf Cat]

It befuddles me why appraisers nationwide absolutely refuse to slam on the brakes working for AMC's. Starbuck baristas went on strike again before Christmas......they were in the news. Hotel workers (many of whom are not even citizens) went on strike and got media coverage. Appraisers just bend over and grab their ankles.

 

[J Grant]

So what? Fast food workers make $10-14 an hour here. And almost all are part-time meaning they don't get health care or retirement pay like a government worker.


That would be a negative for a lot of guys And the two male stylists I knew were both gay...and hated each other. I dated a female hairdresser and she used to tell funny stories about the gays in the Stylist conventions. And she was making better money than me in the oil patch, and drove a red corvette.

While there are a number of gay guy hairdressers, some of that is a stereotype. I have known a number of straight male hairdressers over the years (( come of them were married). Even a mediocre stylist can do well, and a talented one, especially in an urban, high-priced area, can do extremely well.
The point was that we need to open our minds as to what is suitable to do - I was floored when I saw how much dog trainers here were charging. ( I couldn't afford one) Group classes were more affordable but still not cheap.
Dog groomers - haircuts are running $90 and up here. Idk how many they can do a day -maybe six?